Thursday, October 3, 2019

2020 Primary Season

I haven't been following politics as much as I once did. The reason is equal parts disgust with the mockery that has been made of "civil discourse" on both sides of the aisle and distrust of the press to truthfully report the news without bias or spin. I have a hard time listening to what passes for news anymore. When I do make the effort, I'm cynical and skeptical enough that I have to read several sources and average it out to get a sense of what might really be happening.

I have not yet been able to muster up enough flying flips to watch any of the Democrat Party primary debates so far. From what I have been able to gather from reading the morning after recaps, they have been a big waste of time and money thus far. The sad fact of the matter is that no one actually debates anymore. Not that you can really have a debate with 10 or 20 people on the stage. With that many "contestants", there is no time to really conduct a proper debate under those circumstances even if they had the desire and skills to do so. It would take over an hour to get through a proper statement, response and rebuttal type debate for just one question with that many participants. Not that any of  the candidates cares to do such a debate. They seem to be content to talk in circles and sound bites dodging whatever question or topic while claiming to be "perfectly clear" about the topic at hand.

With the New Hampshire Primaries just four short months away, I thought I would go out on a limb and get my predictions in early for the likely opponents in the big show next November.

For the Republicans, this is a no brainer. Incumbent President Trump has no serious contenders waiting in the wings to unseat him as the GOP standard bearer for 2020. Of the currently declared candidates, John Kasich probably has the best chance of any of them by which I mean none. The current impeachment inquiry drum beating trying to stick Joe Biden's dirty laundry on Trump is pretty pathetic even by the standards of the Democratic Party for the last couple of years. My prediction is that the Democrat controlled House of Representatives drags out the impeachment inquiry until November in hopes of keeping Trump on his heals. Trump, being Trump, will continue to do what he does best and use every opportunity to make his opponents look like bumbling incompetents.

For the Democrats, the three ring circus isn't nearly as up for grabs this time as one would expect without Hillary Clinton in the mix. From what I can tell, this is really a 3 maybe 4 person race with Joe Biden leading the polls followed by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders polling better than 10% depending on who is doing the stats. None of the other currently announced candidates are polling well enough or have the fundraising ability to stay in the race for long even assuming they stay in until February.

Creepy Uncle Joe, for all his faults and dirty laundry, is, for want of a better option, the front runner here. To moderate Democrats, Biden is "safe" for certain values of safe. He is not an ultra liberal nutcase; and, having been in political office for the majority of his life, he knows who is who and how to make deals in the swamp (which, let's face it, can't be drained to the extent it needs to be). No one in flyover country will ever leave Joe alone in the same room as their daughters, but he can also be counted on not to go full retard. Yes, he will engage in pay for play antics and generally do whatever he can to advance the interests of his donors and the party over what is good for the country as a whole, but he's not likely to honeymoon in Moscow or Havana either.

That brings us to Bernie Sanders. If Joe Biden is the creepy uncle everyone tolerates, Bernie is the crazy uncle to whom no one admits being related. That is not to say that Bernie isn't a contender this go round. Quite the opposite. The Bern is most popular with a certain demographic which just happens to be reaching ascendancy as the majority of the working and voting population: Millenials. Boomers, Xers and Yers underestimate this demographic shift at their peril, and it is no coincidence that the Liberal wing of the Democratic Party has spent the last 40 years with a death grip on public and higher education for the sole purpose of shaping entire generations to achieve their agenda. To them, Bernie is their ideological hero who shook the pillars under Queen Hillary's throne before discovering that the game was rigged. Unfortunately, recent reports have him taking a break from campaigning because of health issues.

Elizabeth Warren is competing with Sanders for the liberal wing of the party and, based on current polls, has a credible chance of upsetting Biden at the convention. That said, she's no Hillary and does not have what it takes to be the first woman president.

That, in my opinion and absent an as yet unannounced dark horse candidate, brings it back to the "safe" choice for the donors and moderates. Unless the Ukraine deal rears its ugly head and bites Uncle Joe in the naughty bits,  I see a Trump vs. Biden match up in November.

What says the peanut gallery?

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